Europäische Pensionsfonds setzen 2024 verstärkt auf Fixed Income und Nachhaltigkeit

Céline van Asselt und Fadi Abuali, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

18.03.2024
Märkte

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Céline van Asselt und Fadi Abuali / Bild(er): Goldman Sachs Asset Management

Pensionsfondsmanager in Europa sind laut der ersten „European Pension Survey“ von Goldman Sachs Asset Management mit Blick auf das laufende Jahr verhalten optimistisch.

Die höchsten risikobereinigten Renditen werden bei Investment-Grade-Anleihen und Private Credit erwartet; neun von zehn Umfrageteilnehmern planen, entsprechende Allokationen auszubauen oder beizubehalten.
Sieben von zehn Befragten sind der Auffassung, dass Private-Credit-Lösungen das Potenzial von Renditesteigerungen bei gleichbleibender Volatilität besitzen.
Nahezu 60 Prozent der Fonds sehen eine Verbesserung des Investitionsklimas.
87 Prozent der Befragten betrachten nachhaltige Anlagen im Zuge ihrer Anlageentscheidungen als entscheidend oder wichtig; fast zwei Drittel (63 Prozent) sind mit mehr als zehn Prozent ihres Portfolios in diesem Segment investiert.
Sieben von zehn Befragten planen, ihre Anlageportfolios in den nächsten zwölf Monaten ganz oder teilweise auszulagern.

Pensionsfondsmanager erwarten, dass Investment-Grade-Anleihen und Private Credit im Jahresverlauf die höchsten risikobereinigten Renditen generieren werden. Dies geht aus der Umfrage Finding Opportunity in Uncertain Markets hervor, die Goldman Sachs Asset Management unter europäischen Pensionsfonds durchführte.

Neun von zehn Befragten planen, ihre Allokation in diesen Anlageklassen zu erhöhen oder beizubehalten. Dem Segment Private Credit attestieren fast sieben von zehn Managern (68 Prozent) das Potenzial von Renditesteigerungen bei gleichbleibender Volatilität, und zwei Drittel (65 Prozent) planen eine Allokation in der Anlageklasse in den kommenden drei bis fünf Jahren.

Im Rahmen der ersten Umfrage zum Thema wurden 126 leitende Manager und Führungskräfte europäischer Pensionsfonds zu den Chancen und Herausforderungen befragt, denen sie gegenüberstehen, sowie zu den Aussichten für institutionelle Anleger auf öffentlichen und privaten Märkten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen verhaltenen Optimismus im Hinblick auf das laufende Jahr: 59 Prozent der Befragten stellen eine Verbesserung des Investitionsklimas fest.

Bares ist Wahres

Im Verlauf der letzten beiden Jahre hat sich der Deckungsgrad von Pensionsfonds erhöht: In Europa liegt der Gesamtdeckungsgrad derzeit bei 120 Prozent, in Großbritannien mit 134 Prozent sogar auf Rekordniveau. Die Manager von Pensionsfonds konzentrieren sich daher verstärkt auf das Liquiditätsmanagement und die Risikominderung.

Der Umfrage zufolge nehmen die Fonds mit der höchsten Deckung eine deutlich stärkere Allokation in Barmitteln als in Aktien vor. Insbesondere britische Fonds wirken als treibende Kraft bei der Umschichtung in diese Anlageklasse. Sämtliche Befragten mit Sitz in Großbritannien gaben an, ihre Allokationen zu erhöhen oder beizubehalten. Keiner der Befragten aus Großbritannien plant, das Engagement in Aktien aus Industrieländern aufzustocken, 38 Prozent beabsichtigen eine Reduzierung.

Geopolitische Risiken als größte Sorge

Europäische Pensionsfonds sehen in den geopolitischen Entwicklungen die größte Gefahr für ihre Portfolios im Verlauf des Jahres. Mehr als 70 Prozent der Befragten betrachten geopolitische Spannungen und politische Ereignisse als größten Risikofaktor für ihre Portfolios. Auf regulatorischer Ebene halten 58 Prozent die Anforderungen der Verordnung über nachhaltigkeitsbezogene Offenlegungspflichten im Finanzdienstleistungssektor (Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, „SFDR“) und 55 Prozent die geplanten Vorgaben für Stresstests zu Klimarisiken für die schwierigsten neuen Aufgaben für die Fonds. In den Niederlanden nannten 86 Prozent der Befragten die neuen Beitragszusagen als eine der größten regulatorischen Herausforderungen. Dies unterstreicht die Bedeutung der Umstellung von einem leistungsbasierten auf ein beitragsorientiertes Modell, die sich derzeit im niederländischen Pensionssektor vollzieht.

Nachhaltige Anlagen im Fokus

Die Umfrageergebnisse machten zudem deutlich, dass nachhaltige Anlagen bereits zum festen Bestandteil europäischer Pensionsfonds geworden sind: Für 87 Prozent der Befragten sind sie ein entscheidender oder wichtiger Faktor bei ihren Anlageentscheidungen, und fast zwei Drittel (63 Prozent) sind mit über zehn Prozent ihres Portfolios in nachhaltigen Anlagen investiert. Darüber hinaus ist ein Großteil der Befragten (84 Prozent) überzeugt, dass die Einbeziehung von ESG-Kriterien in Anlageentscheidungen dazu beitragen kann, langfristige Risiken zu mindern. Mehr als die Hälfte geht davon aus, dass dieser Ansatz Alpha generieren kann.

Auf der Ebene der Allokation werden nachhaltige Anlagestrategien vor allem bei Anlagen in Aktien aus Industrieländern und bei Investment-Grade-Anleihen angewendet.

Die Nachhaltigkeitsthemen mit der stärksten Gewichtung in den Anlageportfolios erstrecken sich über das gesamte ESG-Spektrum: Übergangsrisiken in Verbindung mit dem Klimawandel haben oberste Priorität (75 Prozent), gefolgt von guter Unternehmensführung (61 Prozent) und Menschenrechten (49 Prozent).

Verstärkte Auslagerung des Investment Managements

Angesichts zunehmend komplexer Compliance-Anforderungen, steigender Kosten und der Unsicherheit an den Märkten spielt die Auslagerung des Investment Managements eine wichtige Rolle für Pensionsfonds. Sieben von zehn Befragten lagern ihre Anlageportfolios der Umfrage zufolge ganz oder teilweise aus. Dies unterstreicht die Bedeutung der externen Vermögensverwaltung für europäische Pensionsfonds mit Leistungszusage.

Der Outsourcing-Trend hat einen konkreten ESG-Bezug: Pensionsfondsmanager setzen bei der Auslagerung auf externe Manager mit umfassenden Kapazitäten im Bereich nachhaltiger Anlagen und robuster Stewardship-Richtlinien. Vier von zehn Befragten greifen bei der Entwicklung ihrer nachhaltigen Anlagepolitik auf externe Vermögensverwalter zurück.

Ein entscheidender Zeitpunkt für europäische Pensionsfonds

Unsere Umfrage erfasst die Einschätzung von Managern europäischer Pensionsfonds mit Leistungszusage zu einem entscheidenden Zeitpunkt. Viele zeigen sich mit Blick auf das Investitionsklima optimistisch. Doch die Aussicht auf höhere Zinsen über einen längeren Zeitraum, die weltweit uneinheitliche Wachstumsentwicklung und erhöhte geopolitische Risiken sorgen für ungewisse Konjunkturaussichten. Vor dem Hintergrund eines kräftigen Renditeanstiegs und der rückläufigen Inflation setzen Manager verstärkt auf Investment-Grade-Anleihen und Private Credit. Wir rechnen mit einer kontinuierlichen Erhöhung des Fixed-Income-Engagements an den öffentlichen und privaten Märkten, da Pensionsfonds ihre Positionen in Anlageklassen mit höherer Volatilität wie Aktien in stabilere, ertragsgenerierende Anlagen umschichten.

Wir rechnen mit einer verstärkten Auslagerung im Asset Management. Fondsverwalter stehen heute vor der Aufgabe, neue regulatorische Anforderungen zu erfüllen, aktiveren Stakeholdern zu begegnen und steigende Reputationsrisiken zu steuern. Doch die Entwicklung der Ressourcen von Pensionsfonds hat nicht mit dieser Komplexität Schritt gehalten. Das Investitionsklima ist aufgrund der Aussicht auf höhere Zinsen über einen längeren Zeitraum und ein langsameres Wachstum in den meisten Industrieländern weiterhin von Unsicherheit geprägt. Doch an den öffentlichen und privaten Märkten bieten sich Anlegern mit diversifiziertem und risikobewusstem Ansatz zahlreiche Chancen.

Die vollständige Studie können Sie hier einsehen: European Pension Survey 2024

Fadi Abuali ist CEO von Goldman Sachs Asset Management International, Céline van Asselt Head of Fiduciary Management, Continental Europe.

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