Märkte
Halving hält Krypto-Welt in Atem – was Anleger jetzt beachten müssen
21Shares Research-Team
Eliézer Ndinga / Bild: 21Shares
Die gesamte Kapitalisierung des Krypto-Marktes stieg in der vergangenen Woche um weitere 16,3 Prozent an und erreichte damit zum ersten Mal seit dem Marktcrash Ende Mai 2021 wieder eine Bewertung von 1,92 Billionen US-Dollar. Der gesamte Markt legte in den letzten 21 Tagen um 700 Milliarden Dollar zu. Bitcoin durchbrach die entscheidende Marke von 45.000 US-Dollar, übertraf seinen gleitenden 200-Tage-Durchschnitt und erreichte damit wieder das Niveau vor den chinesischen Eingriffen in den Krypto-Markt. Der Lichtblick dieses Aufwärtstrends ist die Tatsache, dass die Preisentwicklung durch den Kassamarkt getrieben wird, mit einer um mehrere Größenordnungen geringeren Hebelwirkung als noch zu Beginn des zweiten Quartals dieses Jahres.
Die Erholungsrallye in dieser Woche wurde durch die überaus positive Stimmung der Anleger im Zusammenhang mit dem lang erwarteten Verbesserungsvorschlag, dem „Ethereum Improvement Proposal EIP-1559“, ausgelöst. Das sogenannte „Londoner Hard Fork“ stellt das bislang größte Ethereum-Update der vergangenen Jahre dar. Seit seiner Aktivierung am 5. August wurden 21.484 ETH bzw. rund 64,9 Millionen Dollar verbrannt und aus dem Angebot entfernt. Dies entspricht weniger als 0,01 Prozent des gesamten Ethereum-Angebots in Höhe von 117 Millionen ETH.
ETH als knappes Gut
Um diese Zahlen begreiflicher zu machen – es wurden in den letzten fünf Tagen seit der Aktivierung von EIP-1559 21.000 ETH verbrannt, das sind ungefähr 4.200 ETH pro Tag. Dabei ist zu bedenken, dass bei der Verarbeitung jedes einzelnen Blocks – im Durchschnitt alle 13 Sekunden – neben den vereinnahmten Transaktionsgebühren zwei ETH an die Miner ausgezahlt werden. Bei 86.400 Sekunden pro Tag werden demnach täglich 13.200 neue ETH erzeugt. Mit der Einführung der Londoner Hard Fork wurden so etwa 32 Prozent des täglichen Ethereum-Angebots dauerhaft entfernt – was der These von ETH als knappes und deflationäres Gut starken Rückenwind verschafft.
Der NFT-Sektor (NFT steht für „Non-fungible Token“) ist im Grunde der Wachstumstreiber von Ethereum (das in den letzten 7 Tagen ein Plus von 18 Prozent verzeichnete), so wie es im letzten Sommer DeFi-Anwendungen waren. Das wöchentliche Handelsvolumen des Sektors überstieg zum ersten Mal in der Geschichte die Marke von 300 Millionen Dollar. NFTs zeigen in diesem Jahr, dass Innovation über die reine Technik hinausgeht. Ein Beispiel hierfür ist Axie Infinity, ein Blockchain-Computerspiel, das in den letzten 30 Tagen 17-mal bzw. circa 200 Millionen US-Dollar mehr Umsatz als DeFi-Dienste generierte.
Bei 21Shares erwarten wir in den letzten vier Monaten dieses Jahres viele weitere Upgrades in verschiedenen Netzwerken. Dies wird die Akzeptanz von Kryptowährungen beschleunigen und die Benutzererfahrung erleichtern. Dazu gehört beispielsweise der Übergang zu Proof of Stake bei Ethereum und der offizielle Start von Parachains auf Polkadot, Ereignisse, die alle irgendwann im vierten Quartal dieses Jahres stattfinden werden.
Bei 21Shares erwarten wir in den letzten vier Monaten dieses Jahres viele weitere Upgrades in verschiedenen Netzwerken. Dies wird die Akzeptanz von Kryptowährungen beschleunigen und die Benutzererfahrung erleichtern. Dazu gehört beispielsweise der Übergang zu Proof of Stake bei Ethereum und der offizielle Start von Parachains auf Polkadot, Ereignisse, die alle irgendwann im vierten Quartal dieses Jahres stattfinden werden.
Eliézer Ndinga ist Co-Leiter des Research-Teams von 21Shares
und liefert Einblicke in die globale Wirtschaft, die Märkte, die
Geopolitik und die langfristige Vermögensallokation - alles, um Kunden
bei der Navigation auf dem Krypto-Asset-Markt zu unterstützen. Als
Venture Capital Associate kann er Erfahrung in der Leitung von
Investitionen in der Seed- und Early-Stage-Phase von Fintech- und
Digital Asset-Startups vorweisen, da er drei Investitionen in Fonds
einbrachte, darunter ein Fintech-Einhorn.
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